At the critical point of the end of September 2026, the Nasdaq Index has once again become the focus of global market attention. As a representative index of US technology stocks, the Nasdaq not only reflects the rise and fall of the technology industry but also serves as a barometer of global risk appetite. This article will conduct an in-depth analysis of the driving factors behind the recent trend of the Nasdaq Index from both technical and fundamental dimensions, and explore potential market turning points and their important implications for investors.

Technical Analysis: Market Turning Point Under Multiple Indicator Resonance

From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq Index at the end of September 2026 shows a typical "head and shoulders bottom" reversal pattern, which is regarded as a strong bullish signal in technical analysis. After hitting a short-term low in early September, the index has closed positively for four consecutive weeks, with trading volume steadily expanding, showing a significant increase in market participation.

Notably, the key moving average system of the Nasdaq Index has formed a bullish arrangement. Since the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average to form a "golden cross" in mid-August, it has continued to provide support for the index. Currently, the index has stabilized above the 200-day moving average and is only about 2% away from the 50-day moving average, indicating that the short-term upward trend has been established, but there is still room for further upside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the Nasdaq Index is currently in a neutral to strong area around 65, neither entering the overbought zone nor indicating that the market has sufficient upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator's fast and slow lines have formed a golden cross above the zero axis, and the red histogram continues to expand, further confirming the reliability of the upward trend.

From a volatility perspective, the VIX fear index has fallen below 15 from its high in mid-August, reaching a historically low range. This typically means market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and investor risk appetite has recovered. However, it's worth noting that historical experience shows that a prolonged low VIX is often a precursor to increased market volatility, and investors need to be alert to potential rapid correction risks.

Fundamental Analysis: Dual Drive from Tech Giant Earnings and Macro Policies

Behind the strong performance of the Nasdaq Index is the strong support from the earnings season of tech giants. In the just concluded third quarter earnings season, most of the "Magnificent Seven" companies performed better than market expectations, especially the significant growth in AI-related business revenue, which has become an important driving force for the index's rise.

As a leading enterprise in AI chips, NVIDIA's data center business revenue grew by more than 80% year-on-year, far exceeding the market expectation of 60%. The company's newly released Blackwell Ultra architecture has further consolidated its leading position in the AI computing power field, triggering collective rating upgrades by analysts. The cloud computing businesses of tech giants such as Microsoft and Google have also performed impressively, with AI-related service showing explosive growth.

In addition to tech giants, small and medium-sized technology stocks in the Nasdaq have also shown signs of comprehensive recovery. Especially in niche areas such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and cybersecurity, many companies have achieved double growth in revenue and profits. This indicates that the growth of the technology industry has spread from a few giants to a wider range of enterprises, providing a more solid foundation for the index.

From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at its September meeting but sent clear signals of interest rate cuts. This policy shift has alleviated market concerns about a high-interest-rate environment, which is conducive to the valuation recovery of growth assets such as technology stocks. Meanwhile, US economic data shows that although GDP growth has slowed, the job market remains strong, and the inflation rate has continued to fall to around 2%, creating favorable conditions for an economic "soft landing."

Industry Rotation: Sector Rotation from AI to New Energy

The rise of the Nasdaq Index is not driven by a single sector, but shows obvious characteristics of industry rotation. After AI concept stocks experienced significant gains in the early stage, funds have begun to rotate to sectors such as new energy and biotechnology.

The new energy sector performed prominently in September, with several solar and electric vehicle companies announcing breakthrough technologies that significantly reduced production costs and improved energy conversion efficiency. These innovations have not only enhanced corporate profit expectations but also strengthened market confidence in the long-term growth prospects of new energy.

The biotechnology sector has also received favor from funds, with several innovative drugs showing positive progress in clinical trials, and frequent news about FDA accelerated approvals. After a significant valuation correction over the past year, this sector is currently in a value recovery phase and has high investment attractiveness.

Geopolitical Risks and Market Resilience

Although the Nasdaq Index has shown strong overall performance, investors still need to pay attention to the potential impact of geopolitical risks on the market. Recent tensions in the Middle East, escalation of US-EU trade frictions, and other factors may trigger market volatility.

Notably, the Nasdaq Index has shown strong resilience when facing these risk factors. This is mainly due to the global layout characteristics of the technology industry and the core position of US technology companies in the global industrial chain. Even when there is turmoil in some regions, these companies can maintain relatively stable growth through diversified operations.

Institutional Position Changes and Market Sentiment

From an institutional position perspective, hedge funds and mutual funds significantly increased their holdings of technology stocks, especially AI-related companies, in the third quarter. According to the latest disclosed 13F filings, many well-known hedge funds increased their positions in tech giants such as NVIDIA and Microsoft, while reducing their holdings of some traditional industrial stocks.

At the same time, changes in option market positions also reflect the optimistic expectations of institutions for technology stocks. The ratio of call options to put options reached 3:1, the highest level in the past year, indicating that institutional investors hold a positive attitude toward the future trend of the Nasdaq Index.

In terms of retail investor sentiment, according to investor sentiment surveys, retail investors' optimistic sentiment towards technology stocks is currently at a high level, but has not reached an extreme degree. This usually means there is still room for the market to rise further, but it is also necessary to be alert to the risk of a pullback after excessive optimism.

Future Outlook: Market Direction Under Technical and Fundamental Resonance

Looking ahead, the Nasdaq Index is expected to continue its upward trend under the resonance of technical and fundamental factors. From a technical perspective, after breaking through previous highs, the next target will be near the all-time high, with an upside of about 8-10%. Meanwhile, after breaking through key resistance levels, the index may attract more technical buying, forming a self-reinforcing upward trend.

From a fundamental perspective, the innovation cycle in the technology industry, especially in the AI field, is still in its early stages, and is expected to continue to release growth potential in the coming years. At the same time, once the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle begins, it will further reduce the financing costs of technology companies and enhance their valuation levels.

However, investors also need to pay attention to potential risk points. Factors including slower-than-expected AI technology development, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and inflation rebound could all impact the market. In addition, technology stock valuations are already at high levels, and market volatility may increase.

Investment Strategy Recommendations

For different types of investors, we propose the following strategy recommendations:

Long-term investors can continue to hold core positions in technology stocks, but it is recommended to appropriately diversify investments into different sub-industries to reduce reliance on a single sector. Focus on companies with continuous innovation capabilities, sound financial conditions, and global layouts.

Medium-term investors can pay attention to sector rotation opportunities, gradually positioning in sectors with growth potential such as new energy and biotechnology when AI concept stocks adjust. At the same time, they can use option tools to construct protective strategies to reduce market volatility risks.

Short-term traders can focus on technical breakthrough opportunities, especially following up on buying after the index breaks through key resistance levels. At the same time, they need to closely monitor market sentiment indicators and capital flow changes to adjust positions in a timely manner.

Risk Warnings

Investment involves risks, and caution is required when entering the market. Although the Nasdaq Index has shown strong performance recently, historical data shows that technology stocks typically have higher volatility than the overall market. When participating in US stock investments, investors should fully understand the relevant risks and reasonably allocate assets according to their own risk tolerance.

In addition, there is a time difference between US stock trading hours and domestic time, and investors need to pay attention to important news releases before the market opens to adjust trading strategies in a timely manner. Meanwhile, US stock trading adopts a T+1 system and has price limit rules, and investors need to be familiar with these trading rules.

Conclusion

The performance of the Nasdaq Index at the end of September 2026 reflects both the strong recovery of the technology industry and the market's positive response to the Federal Reserve's policy shift. With the dual support of technical and fundamental factors, the index is expected to continue its upward trend, but investors also need to pay attention to potential risks and do a good job of risk control.

For global investors, US stocks, especially technology stocks, remain an important part of asset allocation. Under the current global economic landscape, the innovation capabilities and profit advantages of US technology companies are still difficult to replace, which provides a solid foundation for the long-term performance of the Nasdaq Index.